Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Luck vs. Planning - Wall Street Journal (blog)

By Michelle Gerdes

Radhika Chalasani for The Wall Street Journal
Believing in their own good fortune can help people only in situations where they can affect the outcome. It can’t, say, help people watching a horse race they have bet on.

Are you feeling lucky? If so, that could bring you some good fortune.

In a recent column, the WSJ’s Numbers Guy reports on research that suggests that a mere belief in good luck can affect performance. Researchers told some study participants on a putting green that they were putting with a “lucky ball” and others weren’t told the ball was lucky. The group who was told the ball was lucky sank 35% more putts.

This got me thinking, how much of our juggle is under our control, and how much of it is sheer luck?

As a recovering control freak, I’m getting more comfortable with the idea that no matter how much I may plan and organize, something is going to slip past me at some point.

A couple of months ago I found an Excel spreadsheet that I kept when my daughter was first born of her eating and sleeping schedule, broken up into three-hour increments. At the time it seemed like an ingenious plan to get her “scheduled.” About 18 months later, I chuckled sympathetically at that new mom. “Scheduling” a human, let alone a newborn, just isn’t a reality. Plus, who has the time to fiddle with Excel?

Some days I get “lucky” and my daughter eats and sleeps according to a loose schedule my husband and I have worked out. This allows me, on days when I’m home, to handle chores and errands, and get a full night’s sleep so I’m fresh for work the next day. On days when I’m at work, it lets me get out the door on time, and gives my husband, working at home, the chance to get work and some chores done, too.

Other days, the plan has to be scrapped and we just go with the flow, allowing the housework to fall by the wayside and ordering pizza for dinner (with peppers and onions on particularly rough days).

But what if I had a lucky charm to help me get my daughter to nap extra-long on days when I need to do something major at home, for example. Or maybe I’d use my luck to meet deadlines as we try and put the paper to bed. Maybe I could get a a rabbit’s foot to rub when putting Clare down for a nap, or a four-leaf clover to clutch when stuck on a train on the way to work.

But, alas, the report suggests that believing in your own good fortune can help only in situations where you can affect the outcome. It can’t help with something that is out of your control, like a switching problem on New Jersey Transit rails or a little girl that is supposed to be tired and ready for a nap at 11 a.m. but just isn’t.

Readers, how much of your juggle depends on your careful planning, and how much of it is luck? Do you have any lucky charms or rituals that you use? Do they seem to be working?

do you believe in luck? see my reponse under four leaf clover

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