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Ireland still searching for a 4 leaf clover - Moneyweb.co.za

Will we see a breakup in the European Union?

Jozi, Jozi. Whoa...stocks globally started to sell off, I guess you could point the fattest finger at the Chinese and their hot economy and now a bit of an inflation pickle and you would probably have the answer that you are looking for. Although what few people are talking about is the root of the inflation problem, the fact that adverse weather conditions have seen food prices run unnaturally ahead. Part droughts, part floods, but natural disasters are more common in China than in many other places around the world. In fact the worst three natural disasters recorded from a loss of human life are all Chinese events. And then the Chinese have recorded two other top ten spots, so you know what I am talking about here.

And, to add in an Irish problem that is gripping the media, and "a will they or won't they" accept EU help is starting to weigh on markets. Sure it is a big problem, but is it a new problem? No. Resource prices weighed on the majors in our index, that sector down over two and a quarter percent, the diversified stocks taking most tap. The overall market, the Jozi all share index closed down at 31419, down 396 points or 1.25 percent, a drubbing for the bulls.

Spar good for you. Results for the full year this morning. I must admit, I quite like the model. I quite like the brand. I used to like the share price. Turnover of 34.8 billion ZAR, which is a 9 percent increase on last year. Whilst operating expenses seem to have been kept in check, a rise of only 6.7 percent (I say only), operating profits are better by 14.2 percent. Net income of (perhaps insert only) 915 million ZAR. Phew, you work so hard, nearly 35 billion ZAR turnover for less than a billion ZAR of profits.

That translates to EPS of 536 ZA cents. With an annual dividend of 362 cents per share, hey, that is good. The stock trades at 99 ZAR a share. So take the yield part, 3.6 percent is not bad, that is pretty decent bearing in mind that cash rates are going to fall further, perhaps as early as tomorrow afternoon again. The analyst community has the company making nearly 7 ZAR a share worth of earnings in 24 months time, and paying a dividend of over 450 cents a share. So on that basis, the stock trades two years forward on 14 times earnings and has a yield of four and a half percent. Is that good value? And I guess you should be paying a little more if the company has managed to grow that fast.

I guess this is the tricky part that everyone is struggling with, how do you value these companies? Revenue has doubled in five years. HEPS has grown at 23 percent per annum over the same time. Dividend payments have grown from 123 cps back in 2006 to 362 cps now. Margins have actually been maintained, although they look a little "light" for my liking, with net margins below 3 percent. But, they have crept up over the last five years. Operational cash flows are strong. Gearing is low. Did I mention that net margins are low? But then again it is a franchise business.

I get the sense that companies are starting the thaw to the idea that consumers are starting to feel more comfortable, check out the prospects column: "We anticipate that consumer spending will remain under some pressure, however the impact of lower interest rates, improving economic activity and a gradual increase in food inflation are positive signs for an improvement in trading." Ahhh, light at the end of the tunnel for the battered (embattled?) consumer.

A rental car business? The Sub-Saharan, Siberian and Iberian (Spain and Portugal) Caterpillar franchise? Bulk Handling? Logistics? Second hand cars? This of course is a business called Barloworld, who reported full year numbers this morning. A shadow of their former self, the business used to be a South African icon a mere thirty years or so ago, and were one of the biggest back then. Nampak, Tiger Brands (and all the subsequent unbundlings including Spar, Astral foods and Adcock), Reunert, any mine with a Rand name back then, that included JCI (with the significant current Anglo Platinum assets). Phew, add those all up and this would be a giant conglomerate, if it still existed. One that Punch Barlow envisaged.

But now they are a business that turned over 40.8 billion ZAR last year. Discontinued operations made a wider loss per share than last year, whilst continuing operations per share were much lower too. I don't know, they seem pretty upbeat about the outlook, their heavy duty franchise business will benefit from growing markets in mining here in Africa, they make specific reference to growing copper output from Zambia, and increased excitement in Siberia, both markets took a whack as commodity prices imploded. Spain is still set to struggle as government expenditure in the great age of austerity (or call it a return to what your grandparents would refer to as the norm) is toned down on infrastructural projects.

And in fact this is the division that they will look mostly to in the coming year: "Equipment southern Africa is entering the new year with a strong order book particularly from mining customers." But..... "The anticipated recovery of the construction market in South Africa and Angola driven by governmental infrastructure spending is not expected before mid 2011 calendar year."

And the same, as mentioned previously is the outlook in Spain and Portugal: "The austerity measures introduced by the Spanish government mean that the public works sector will remain subdued for most of 2011." But it is a completely different story in Siberia (note, not Russia), a good story: "In Russia, order books have increased significantly on the back of a recovery in mining activity and we expect a strong first half of next year" Excellent.

Fleet services business looks fine and the year ahead is all good. The automotive business is set to recover here locally, led by better consumer access to credit and rising consumer confidence. You know, it is time to buy a car. A new one. You will probably find that this time next year we are talking about a much improved performance, but I am not too sure that a geared investment to the credit cycle is predictable enough to make me comfortable.

Reunert full year numbers this morning too. It has been a busy morning here. A four percent change in revenue to 10.6 billion ZAR with a bottom line of 911 million ZAR. So, you would have to say, decent net margins, although in the world of Warren Buffett I think anything below ten percent is a no-no, that is quite hard to achieve. Nashua is two thirds of overall revenue and 52 percent of operating profits. What is quite (or very interesting) is CBI-Electric is a 45 percent operating profit contributor but only contributes 28 percent to total group revenue. So clearly the operating margins in the CBI-Electric businesses are double that of the more talked about Nashua business.

I guess cables and low voltage equipment are much more exciting to engineers than the mobile business, with around three quarters of a million customers. Although the same could be said for office equipment, they try their best with those adverts, but darnit, a printing solution is boring, whichever way you look at it, regardless of your geniuses at Nashua. And then of course there is a separate third division which is related with defence systems, perhaps the SANDF used to be a bigger customer in years gone by.

And how do the geniuses at Reunert see the outlook? "The economy is in a delicate state with lower interest rates encouraging growth. However, the strength of the rand is of serious concern with increased imports and reduced export opportunities hampering growth. Subject to the prevailing economic conditions remaining unchanged, the group predicts an increase in earnings for the year ahead." I would venture to say that again, this time next year as is the same for Barloworld, "things" will be better. Disclosure: I am an optimist and no, we don't own any of these shares in our client longs.

Ye olde world Ireland was actually running a surplus a mere four years ago. Public debt now tops 35 thousand Euros per man, woman and child, according to Bloomberg. WHAT!!?? How did this happen? Well, most folks think that the root of the problem was the root of most of the problems, easy money (easy lending criteria) led to massive speculation in the Irish property market. Fuel was added to the hot property flames in the form of lax laws surrounding the flipping of primary properties. And of course, access to easy money, did I say that already? I heard an American property commentator say something along the lines, "well this time around if you want to obtain a mortgage you actually have to HAVE A JOB!" You get the point he is trying to make.

"Ireland built half as many homes as the UK in 2007 despite having one thirteenth the population" is what I read on Candid Money. In fact, you should read the whole article ---> The Irish problem. I don't agree with his conclusion and do believe that he is way too bearish. And that is probably because in 18 months time problems like these will be less problematic for the EU and for the global economy.

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Again, the same questions are starting to be asked, will we see a breakup in the European Union. The biggest problem for the Irish is that they cannot weaken their currency, they share one with a whole lot of bigger economies and they can't tap lines of credit from the IMF, they have to ask the other union members first. They apparently need around 20 percent of their GDP just to bail out the local banks. To put that into local terms OK, would mean that we would need 60 billion US Dollars, or 420 billion Rands to help our banks out, if we got into the same pickle. To answer that question, will they exit the EU, well first things first, there is no mechanism to implement such a mechanism and politically it would lead to civil unrest, as I no doubt think the masses would view this as a step backwards.

Christine Lagarde, the French Economic minister said in an interview last night that if Ireland needs help, they will help. But, she said, they have not asked for help. So everyone seems to think that Ireland needs help, except the pride of the Irish. Politicians I tell you. And did you know that the 1 in 5 people in the Irish workforce is a civil servant. A bloated civil service no doubt. This seems to have been a global trend over the last decade, to add more people to the government payrolls and not fewer.

It is not all doom and gloom though. Remember Latvia? Remember the nearly one fifth contraction of their economy overnight because of the over extension, housing and consumer led economy? Well, not that things are fixed, but they took their medicine and now the economy is growing slowly again. Perhaps there are some hard knock lessons in there for Ireland and Greece. Take all the pain now. But I don't think that they will.

New York, New York. Trounced. Thrashed. Irish debt problems in their banking system and the Chinese inflation problem were blamed. Oh, and if you want, Austria and their school of economics and attitude towards Greece. Because, if the Austrians want to withhold a payment to Greece is that any different from the Greeks having broken the rules in the first place? Methinks not.

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But that has nothing to do with what is happening or happened in New York last evening. There is of course a small matter of a General Motors IPO. And everyone is going gaga for that. Not like meat dress gaga, but rather a forward multiple at the thought current pricing is less than seven times. Cheap. And the US government in order to get back their bail out of the motor vehicle manufacturer, their remaining or residual stake will have to increase 50 percent. Hey, remember when they were not going to get anything back at all? Morons, yes, turns out that the government might get all of it back.

Silk road, riced and diced What do you make of the Chinese setting out on price controls again? Is this a step backwards? Or is this a step in to control what could lead to violent protests, elevated food prices? Because food prices impact more on poor people and poor people have to turn to violence (as history shows us) when they are desperate. So this is not an economics move from Beijing central, but rather a political move. Although, this Marketwatch piece suggests that the price controls could have the opposite effect: China controls may do little to curb prices.

This line I guess will spook almost everyone, except the growers: "Data released this week by the Ministry of Commerce showed that average wholesale prices for 18 key vegetables in 36 Chinese cities soared 62.4% year-on-year in the first 10 days of November." I guess that is the other issue, what might not be good for urban consumers is good for rural farmers. Who, just remind everyone, feel marginalised anyhow. I do not know enough about Chinese politics to know what Beijing central is up to. All I know is that their approach to many matters economic and political is seemingly VERY WELL thought out.

Chinese stocks continued to take a thrashing, down nearly two percent, Hong Kong down 2 percent too. Japan bucked the trend though, a weaker Yen is good for exports, excellent. And of course this is having a negative impact on all of the commodity prices.

Commodities corner Which are: the gold price last at 1338 Dollars per fine ounce. I thought a crisis was good for the gold price? There were CME margin requirements raised yesterday too, some folks thought that might have led to some selling in commodities too. My favourite currency guy, Ashraf Laidi said he thought that the gold price would retrace to 1320 Dollars per fine ounce. I think based on currencies of course. The platinum price is lower at 1640 Dollars per fine ounce. Jeepers the copper price has been bashed, down to 368 US cents per pound. The oil price is lower at 82.05 Dollars per barrel. The Rand is about steady at this time, 7.03 to the US Dollar, 11.20 to the Pound Sterling and lastly 9.50 to the Euro.

Up periscope. We started off on a poor note, but have improved through much of the day. There are of course housing numbers a little later.

 *Sasha Naryshkine is from Vestact Asset Management

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Leprechauns Might Save Irish Economy - The Spoof (satire)

In the wake of some of the worst economic news to hit Ireland for decades, record numbers of Irish people are laying traps hoping to catch the elusive leprechauns and make them hand over the gold in their possession. Some claim that the stores of gold held captive by the country's leprechauns is enough to not only bring Ireland out of the financial mess but to make it the richest country in the world.

Bounties have been placed on the heads of leprechauns as countrymen keep their eyes trained on the skies for any sign of a rainbow. Weather forecasters claim the time for rainbows has pretty much gone the way of the winter weather, but that hasn't stopped most from hoping for one or two more late fall thunderstorms.

Many wonder why the thought of putting out traps and bounties for leprechauns wasn't a part of the country's economic plan before things got so dire. Folklorists claim that only the most desperate man will actually try and catch a leprechaun due to the fact that the little fellas are notorious for the mean-spirited jokes they play on anyone who comes close enough to them. But these are unusually rough economic times and desperate times call for desperate measures.

In addition to placing bounties on the heads of leprechauns, many Irish farmers are planning on planting an over-abundance of clover this coming spring in hopes of upping the chances of finding enough four-leaf clovers to turn the luck of the Irish around. "It's all we got so far, said Brian Lenihan, Irish Finance Minister. "We never thought we'd have to go to the lengths of having money thrown at us by other countries so we never really had a back-up plan. But anything's better than being beholden to the Germans."

He continued, "We're pretty sure the leprechauns, when they see how desperate we are, will bring their pots of gold to us. At least, that's what any loyal countryman would do, be he 6 ft. tall or the size of a large mushroom."

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Irish in Feverish Leprechaun Hunt to Rescue Economy - Glossy News (satire)

Irish in Feverish Leprechaun Hunt to Rescue Economy

Posted on November 19, 2010. Tags: bailout, EU, european union, financial crisis, Ireland, Irish, Leprechauns, luck
Posted by P. Beckert

DUBLIN, Ireland – In the wake of some of the worst economic news to hit Ireland for decades, record numbers of Irish people are laying traps hoping to catch the elusive leprechauns and make them hand over the gold in their possession.

Some claim that the stores of gold held captive by the country’s leprechauns is enough to not only bring Ireland out of the financial mess but to make it the richest country in the world.

Bounties have been placed on the heads of leprechauns as countrymen keep their eyes trained on the skies for any sign of a rainbow. Weather forecasters claim the time for rainbows has pretty much gone the way of the winter weather, but that hasn’t stopped most from hoping for one or two more late fall thunderstorms.

Many wonder why the thought of putting out traps and bounties for leprechauns wasn’t a part of the country’s economic plan before things got so dire. Folklorists claim that only the most desperate man will actually try and catch a leprechaun due to the fact that the little fellas are notorious for the mean-spirited jokes they play on anyone who comes close enough to them. But these are unusually rough economic times and desperate times call for desperate measures.

In addition to placing bounties on the heads of leprechauns, many Irish farmers are planning on planting an over-abundance of clover this coming spring in hopes of upping the chances of finding enough four-leaf clovers to turn the luck of the Irish around. “It’s all we got so far, said Brian Lenihan, Irish Finance Minister. “We never thought we’d have to go to the lengths of having money thrown at us by other countries so we never really had a back-up plan. But anything’s better than being beholden to the Germans.”

He continued, “We’re pretty sure the leprechauns, when they see how desperate we are, will bring their pots of gold to us. At least, that’s what any loyal countryman would do, be he 6 ft. tall or the size of a large mushroom.”

via news.google.com

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Thanksgiving Wishes, Traditional and Otherwise - The Wenatchee World Online (blog)

Americans love their traditions so there's no wonder that we celebrate Thanksgiving, the granddaddy of American traditions, with such zeal. It’s been celebrated annually since 1863 and in less than one hundred and fifty years we’ve managed to link a myriad of allied traditions to the day - parades, football games, family gatherings, afternoon naps, even Presidential turkey pardons. You probably have your own annual customs, we all do, but I’ll take a stab in the dark and guess that yours, in some way, includes food. You’re in good company, because I think we’re all in the same boat. Admit it, the first time you even heard the T word in early fall, wasn’t food among your first thoughts? Sure, you might have subsequently thought about a day home from work, some great Black Friday discounts, or how to plan the family get together, but the word Thanksgiving itself initially brings to mind copious amounts of carefully prepared groceries, doesn’t it? For you, maybe it’s a slow roasted turkey and the smell that permeates through the house (a piece of tasty light meat or a succulent dark drumstick, what’s your pleasure?), or perhaps it’s Mom’s yummy sweet potatoes or that special holiday recipe that she only makes once a year. Maybe you’ve been having random thoughts all month about how to save room for some pumpkin or pecan pie. (Or could you have both?) Then again, maybe it just comes down to the fact that this is the one day that we’re all allowed to eat as much as we want and no one is allowed to talk about diet, carbs, sugar, cholesterol, fat grams, or calories. This is a day of eating until you have to loosen your belt. You are actually allowed (and expected) to feel perfectly fine about feeling absolutely miserable! It is said that the first Thanksgiving lasted three days, but the way this holiday has evolved, I’m not sure that anyone could survive three days of sanctioned gluttony, though many might enjoy trying!

One of my favorite traditions is a bit more obscure. As a child I always loved a chance to grasp one end of the turkey wishbone and hope for an opportunity to get my wish. I may be a much more pragmatic adult, but I’ll still admit to saving the wishbone. Hey, why not? Okay, so wishes really don’t come true from a wish bone. I know it and you know it, but there is that one brief magical moment when your pinky is wrapped around that tiny sliver and realism vanishes when you pull for…! Hey, don’t tell me, or it won’t come true, right?

I once worked at a school that attracted many foreign students. It was always a pleasure to share our American traditions and one year I had just such an opportunity when a large November potluck dinner became a first Thanksgiving feast for a young Norwegian student, his wife and their two small boys. As they were eating their turkey dinner with all the trimmings, I was on carving duty and noticed the wishbone. I knew I couldn’t just throw away the wishbone, someone should have the chance for a bit of luck, but who? Then I remembered the little Norwegian boys. I cleaned up the bone a bit, walked over to where the family was sitting, knelt down so they could hear me over the din of conversation and handed the bone to the young parents. Smiling, I told them, “I saw this and thought of your boys. Have fun!” I walked back to my work, then glanced back over my shoulder, fully expecting to see two excited little boys tugging on a wishbone. Instead what I saw were the most bewildered faces on a family of four I’d ever seen. The turkey bone had now been placed on the table between them as if it were an unexploded bomb that no one knew how to disarm. Completely befuddled, the family kept shooting glances between each other and the little bone in the middle of the table. Before they pondered my sanity any further, I raced back over to the table as the student picked up the bone and asked me in his best English, “Please, why do you think of my children when you see this little turkey bone?” Lesson learned; traditions are not always universal.

I’m not cooking a whole bird this year. Oh, we’ll have plenty of trimmings, but since we’re having a small quiet holiday this year there will be just enough turkey for us and no wishbone. Strangely enough though, I still have the wishbone I pulled from a turkey two years ago sitting in my kitchen window. I know, it’s a bit bizarre to keep a wishbone for two years, much less to display it in your window, but I set it aside on that day and there it has sat ever since. It’s gradually become a peculiar decoration if you will, a remembrance of a Thanksgiving gone by. Then, as time passed it almost seemed wrong to snap it, as if it were holding its luck, like a horseshoe over a door or a four-leaf clover pressed in a book. Then again, maybe it’s just waiting for the right two people on the right Thanksgiving day to take their chances. I know, I’m being silly, but it wouldn’t be the first time I was accused of thinking or doing something a bit off the wall. Who knows, maybe I’ll do something with it this week, after all, it is just a turkey bone...

Forever on Thanksgiving Day, the heart will find the pathway home… ~Wilbur D. Nesbit
To my beloved family back home (for whom I am very thankful) and to everyone reading this, I wish you all a very Happy Thanksgiving.

Please remember those with less than a cornucopia of provisions on their table this Thanksgiving. Keep your local food bank in mind, today and throughout the continuing Holiday Season.

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The odds of a person discovering a four leaf clover in his life time? Have you ever try to look for them? Did you not find one, or found one right away? Have you noticed that people who claim that they have found a true Irish charm can usually find them again? Did you found one? If not, you may never ever find one, if you do, you just might find another one if you look for it.. How? Was it just lucky?

Why are they so hard to find? The four leaf kind is quite special, occurring once in about 10,000 specimens. how did four leaf clover gets to be a lucky symbol? Hope, faith love and hope is what each stands for. The holy trinity was taught by St. Patrick’s by usine the shamrock. The Shamrock, having three leaflets forming a single leaf by definition - God the Father, the Son, and the Holy Spirit.

After Adam and Eve were kicked out of The Garden of Eden, Eve took a four leaf clover as a keepsake. She wanted a token to remember the joy they enjoyed in The Garden of Eden. That is why if one wears a good luck pendant it is supposed to bring happiness into the person’s life. One important aspect of the four-leaf clover myth is that for it to bring luck you must find it serendipitously. Historically, if one finds a four leaf clover, he would be granted with special power to see fairies and spirits…

Luck has the power to transform the improbable into the possible, to make the difference between life and death, reward and ruin, happiness and despair. Luck is your good friend. Small favor like a awesome parking spot, or a lucky chance with opposite sex. A life time of hard work could all be ruin in a split second, while amazing riches could be acquire in a moment.

“Many an opportunity is lost because a man is out looking for 4 leaf clovers..” - Unknown Author

“If you take steps to improve yourself, to live longer by eating right and exercising, why wouldn’t you also take similar steps to improve your good luck and fortune?” In conclusion, ask yourself this “Are you the lucky few?can you go without a lucky charm?

Are you lucky? Four Leaf Clover Good Luck Charms a source of four leaf clover jewelry. Learn how to feng shui yourself for good luck.